外汇交易和成功风险管理箴言

理查 J. 费尔兹 (Richard J. Feltes) 是美国瑞富投资集团公司（REFCO）的商品研究副总裁兼粮食、菜籽油高级分析师。他于1970年毕业于伊利诺斯大学农业专业,1972年获得南伊利诺斯大学MBA学位,1973年就职于大陆谷物公司（Conti Commodity Services）,1984年进入REFCO公司。

费尔兹以通过数据预测农产品的价格而著称。他所管理的REFCO全球研究网是期货(Futures Contract)业实时分析的重要消息来源之一。REFCO公司吸引大量跨国食品公司成为其客户的原因之一应归功于费尔兹在谷物价格上富有洞察力的分析。

在大商所成立十周年之际,费尔兹应邀访问了大商所。为此次中国之行,他特意将多年来的期货(Futures Contract)从业经验总结成125条箴言,作为礼物送给中国投资者。经作者本人同意,期货(Futures Contract)日报从今天开始对其进行连载。

1. Plan your trades and trade your plans.

为你的交易做好计划；按你的计划执行交易。

2. Hope and fear are the two greatest enemies of speculators.

期冀和恐惧是投机者两个最大的敌人。 fxwork.cn

3. Keep records of your trading results.

对你的交易结果做好纪录。 fxwork.cn

4. Maintain a positive attitude no matter how much you lose.

不管你输了多少,保持一个积极的态度。

5. Avoid overconfidence——it could be your greatest enemy. fxwork.cn

不要过分自信——它会成为你最大的仇敌。

6. Continually set higher trading goals.

不断设定更高的交易目标。

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7. Stops are the key to success for many traders——limit your losses! fxwork.cn

设定止损是很多交易者成功的关键——限制你的亏损！

8. The most successful traders are those that trade long term.

最成功的交易商是做长线交易的交易商。

9. Successful traders buy into bad news ＆ sell into good news.

成功的交易者在坏消息时买,在好消息时卖。

10. The successful trader is not afraid to buy high ＆ sell low. fxwork.cn

成功的交易者不怕在高位时买进,在低位时做空。

11. Successful traders have a well scheduled planned time for studying the markets. fxwork.cn

成功的交易者有效地规划时间来进行市场研究。 fxwork.cn

12. Successful traders set profit objectives for each trade they enter.

成功的交易者为他们所做的每一笔交易都设定有赢利目标。

13. Do not collect the opinions of others before entering trades——facts are priceless——opinions are worthless. In short successful traders isolate themselves from the opinions of others.

不要在还没进入交易以前就到处征求意见——事实价值无穷、意见一文不值。简单地说,成功的交易者不为别人的意见所左右。

14. Continually strive for patience, perseverance, determination, and rational action.

不断地为耐心、毅力、决断和理性的行为作努力。

15. Never get out of the market just because you have lost patience or get into the market because you are anxious from waiting.

决不要因为失去耐心而退出市场,也决不要因为迫不及待而进入市场。

16. Avoid getting in or out of the market too often.

进出市场不要过于频繁。

17. The most profitable trading tool is simply following the trend.

最佳的赢利方法就是跟随趋势。

18. Never change your position in the market without a good reason. When you make a trade, let it be for some good reason or according to a definite plan; then do not get out without a definite indication of a change in trend.

除非有充分的理由,不要改变你在市场里的头寸(Position)。每做一手交易时,你都要有可以依据的理由或者明确的计划；此后,除非有明确的趋势改变的迹象,不要退出。

19. Losses make the speculator studious——not profits. Take advantage of every loss to improve your knowledge of market action.

赔钱不能赢利,但能使投机者细心钻研。抓住每一次赔钱的机会,改进你对市场行为的了解。

20. The most difficult task in speculation is not prediction but self－control. Successful trading is difficult and frustrating. You are the most important element in the success equation.

在投机里最难的任务不是预测,而是自我控制。成功的交易是艰难和令人烦恼的交易。在成功的等式里,你是最重要的因素。

21. The basic substance of price change is human emotion. Panic, fear, greed, insecurity, anxiety, stress, and uncertainty are the primary sources of short－term price change.

价格变化的基本要素是人的情感。慌乱、恐惧、贪婪、不安全感、担心、压力和犹豫不定,这些是短期价格变动的主要根源。 fxwork.cn

22. Bullish consensus is typically at its high when the market is at a top. Also there are few bulls at major bottoms.

典型地说,当市场在顶部时,异口同声地看多的人最多；在重大的底部时,很少有人持牛市Bull Market的观点。

23. Watch the spreads i.e., don^t be bullish if inverses are narrowing.

注意多空套做。也就是说,如果逆差在减小,不要看多。 fxwork.cn

24. Remember that a bear market will give up in one month what a bull market has taken 3 months to build.

记住,一个月的熊市Bear Market能让你失去在三个月的牛市Bull Market中所得到的。

25. Identify “the dominant factor” in each commodity. Be prepared to redefine this factor as conditions change. fxwork.cn

找到每一种商品期货(Futures Contract)里的“决定性因素”。随着情况的变化,随时准备重新判定着一因素。

26. Expand your sources for market info but limit your sources for market opinion.

扩充你的市场信息来源；限制你的市场意见来源。

27. Don’t ever allow a big winning trade to turn into a loser. Stop yourself out if market moves against you 20％ from your peak profit point.

永远不要让一场大赢的交易转变为输家。如果市场使你的赢利从最高处下滑了20％,止损出市。

28. It is never possible to know everything about anything. A commodity trader is in constant danger. fxwork.cn

没有人能够做到万事皆知。从事期货(Futures Contract)交易总要面临危险。 fxwork.cn

29. Successful trading requires four things. Knowledge, disciplined courage, money, and the energy to merge the first 3 properly. fxwork.cn

交易要具备四大要素才能成功：知识、控制得当的勇气、金钱以及将这三者妥善结合在一起的精力。

30. Expect and accept losses gracefully. Those who brood over losses always miss the next opportunity, which more than likely will be profitable.

预见到会有亏损,雍容大度地接受亏损。那些对亏损苦思冥想的人总是失去下一个机会,而下一个机会很可能是个赢利的机会。

31. The one essential ingredient to making money with money and keeping it is having an organized effort.

用钱来挣钱以及保住钱的一个根本要素是做事要有板有眼。

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32. Unless you progress, you go backwards. Once you complete a trading goal it is crucial that you immediately set a new goal.

不进则退。要紧的是一旦实现了一个交易目标,你应该立刻设定一个新的目标。

33. The art of concentration can help you become a great trader. In other words, set aside time to think, plan, meditate, investigate, research, analyze, evaluate and select your trades carefully.

专心致志的艺术能够帮助你成为一个杰出的交易者。也就是说,安排出时间来仔细地思考、计划、琢磨、调查、研究、分析、衡量和选择你的交易。

34. Split your profits right down the middle and never risk more than 50％ of them again in the market.

把你的盈利一分为二,决不拿其中的百分之五十以上再到市场上去冒险。

35. The key to successful trading is in knowing yourself and in knowing your stress point.

成功交易的关键是了解你自己以及知道你自己对压力的承受能力。

36. The real difference between winners and losers is not so much native ability as it is discipline exercised in avoiding mistakes.

成功者和失败者之间的真正区别,与其说是天生的能力,还不如说是在避免错误中表现的有素的训练。

37. The greatest risk for a commodity trader is to rely on hope alone. Never substitute hope for facts. The greatest loss is loss of self－confidence.

期货(Futures Contract)交易商的最大的错误就是把一切都寄托在希望上。永远不要用希望来取代事实。自信心的失落是最大的亏损。

38. You cannot perform very well for very long with your shoes nailed to the floor. In trading as in fencing there are the quick and the dead.

你不可能在原地不动而持久地表现出色。交易就像击剑,不是快速运动,就是身败剑下。

39. Remember Mark Twain: “only 10％ of the people think. 10％ think they think. The other 80％ would rather die than think.” fxwork.cn

记住马克·土温说的：“只有百分之十的人思考,百分之十的人认为他们思考,其余百分之八十的人宁死也不愿思考。” fxwork.cn

40. The man who goes to the top as a commodity trader does not do as he pleases. He has trained himself to choose correctly between the two freedoms: the freedom to do as he pleases, and the freedom to do what he must do.

期货(Futures Contract)交易高手做事不是随心所欲。他把自己训练得知道怎样在两种自由中作正确的选择：随心所欲的自由和非做不可的自由。

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41. Since there is always the possibility of surprise in thin, dead markets, less capital should be risked there than in markets which are broad and moving. fxwork.cn

因为在窄小的、停滞的市场里总有出乎意料的可能,在这样的市场里应该比在宽广的、运动的市场里投入较少的资本来承担风险Risk。

50. Dream big dreams and think tall. Very few people set goals too high. A man becomes what he thinks about all day long.

大胆做梦,敢于想象。很少有人把目标设得过高。一个人从早到晚在思考什么,他最终就变成什么。

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51.Commodity trading is the art of regarding fear as the greatest sin and giving up as the greatest mistake. It is the art of accepting failure as a step toward victory.

期货(Futures Contract)交易是一门把恐惧看作是最大的罪恶,把放弃看作是最大的错误的艺术。它是一门把接受失败看作是向胜利走近一步的艺术。 fxwork.cn

52.Have you taken a loss? Forget it quick. If you have taken a profit, forget it quicker. Don’t let ego and greed inhibit clear thinking and hard work. fxwork.cn

你输过吗？尽快忘了它。你要是赢过,忘它忘得更快一些。不要让自我和贪婪妨碍清晰的思维和刻苦的工作。 fxwork.cn

53.The characteristics of realizing bull market are:

a.a fundamental bullish situation

b.a reluctance by specs to buy

c.an inversion or small carrying charge between cash and futures

d.business interests are either cautious or bullish fxwork.cn

识别牛市Bull Market有下列的特征： fxwork.cn

a.从基本面上看,有一个牛市Bull Market的情势 fxwork.cn

b.专业商不情愿去买 fxwork.cn

c.现货同期货(Futures Contract)之间倒挂或只有少量的持有费用

d.商业兴趣或者是持谨慎态度,或者是看多

54.Always remember that weather markets are mercurial, extreme in price fluctuations, and very difficult to master. Forecasts of weather beyond a few days are not reliable.

始终记住,气候市场是变幻无常,价格变动剧烈,极难把握的市场。几天之外的天气预报就不可靠。

55.One cannot do anything about yesterday. When one door closes, another door opens. The greater opportunity nearly always lies through the open door.

没有人能改变昨天发生的事。当一扇门关上时,另一扇门就打开了。越过打开的门,往往能找到更大的机会。

56.The deepest secret for the trader is to subordinate his will to the will of the market. The market is truth as it reflects all forces that bear upon it. As long as he recognizes this, he is safe. When he ignores it, he is lost. fxwork.cn

对交易者来说,最深的秘密就是放弃自己的意愿,屈从于市场的意愿。市场是真理,它反映出它所承担的所有的力量。只要交易者认识到这一点,他就是安全的。当他忽视这一点时,他就会失败。

57.Somewhere a change is occurring that can make you rich. fxwork.cn

在某一地方某种变化正在发生,它能使你变得富有。 fxwork.cn

58.Beware of “fools disease” (i.e. Waiting for trades that you’re sure are 100 pct profitable.) It is better never to let yourself believe that you are 100 pct sure of anything.

警惕“愚人病”（也就是等待那些你百分之百肯定会赢利的交易）。你最好别让你自己相信你能对任何一件事百分之百地肯定。

59.A known fundamental is a useless fundamental.

人人皆知的基本原理是毫无用处的基本原理。

60.Major trends are seldom broken unless market goes against trend for more than 3 consecutive days.

除非市场连续三天同潮流走反向,主要潮流很少会转移方向。

61.If a market doesn’t do what you think it should and you’re tired of waiting , you’d better be out of it. fxwork.cn

如果市场所做的不是你认为它应该做的,而你对等待已感到厌倦,你最好退出市场。

62.Stay calm and maintain clear thinking when trading big positions.

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交易大宗头寸(Position)时,要保持冷静和头脑清醒。

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63.Reevaluate your position in the market if charts have deteriorated and fundamentals have not developed as you expected.

如果图形走弱,而且基本面的发展不像你所预期的那样,重新对你在市场的头寸(Position)作估价。

64.Above all be mentally prepared for the rigors of each trading day from the time you get up each morning until you go to bed at night.

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最重要的是在精神上对每个交易日的严峻场面作好准备,从每天早晨你爬起来,一直到晚上回到床上。

65.Do whatever is necessary to stay on top of the markets you are trading.

竭尽全力,停留在你所交易的市场的顶部。

66.Believe that the market is stronger than you are. Do not try to fight the market.

相信市场比你要强大。不要企图同市场抗争。

67.Beware of large positions that can control your emotions and feelings. In other words don’t be overly aggressive with the market. Treat it gently by allowing your equity to grow steadily rather than in bursts.

对那些会控制你情绪波动的大头寸(Position)保持警惕,也就是说,在市场上不要过分冒进。与其暴赢,不如缓进,稳扎稳打地累积资产。 fxwork.cn

68.Capital preservation is just as important as capital appreciation.

资本保存同资本升值一样要紧。

69.When a market’s gotten away and you’ve missed the first leg you should still consider jumping in even if it is dangerous and difficult.

如果市场已经起步了而你错过了第一轮烽火,你不妨仍然考虑中途介入,即使这样做是危险而困难的。

70.Work hard at understanding the key factor(s) motivating the market(s) you are trading. In other words, the harder you work the luckier you’ll be.

交易时,努力去理解那些推动市场的关键因素。换句话说,越努力你就会越幸运。

71.Remember that it’s better to trade a few big moves a year (and close them out profitably) than to trade constantly.

记住,与其不断地交易,不如每年少交易几手（并在赢利时出手）。

119. Don’t sell a quiet market after a fall because a low volume sell－off is actually a very bullish situation.

不要在一个刚经过跌落的安静的市场里卖。因为低流量的跌市实际上是一个非常看多的处境。

120. Prices are made in the minds of men, not in the soybean field: fear and greed can temporarily drive prices far beyond their so called real value.

价格是在人的头脑里订出来的,而不是在大豆田里订出来的。恐惧和贪婪可以把价格暂时推到远离所谓的实际价格之外。 fxwork.cn

121. When the market breaks through a weekly or monthly high, it is a buy signal. When it breaks through the previous weekly or monthly low, it is a sell signal.

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当市场穿过一个星期或一个月的高位时,这是买的信号。当它穿过前一星期或前一月低位时,这是卖的信号。

122. Every sunken ship has a chart.

没有一艘沉船是不备有图表的。

123. Take a trading break. A break will give you a detached view of the market and a fresh look at yourself and the way you want to trade for the next several weeks. fxwork.cn

在交易之中不妨找个时间休息一下。休息一下可以让你站在另一个角度上来看一看市场,让你重新看一看你自己以及你在以后几个星期内想用的交易方法。

124. Assimilate into your very bones a set of trading rules that works for you.

让你每根骨头的骨髓里都渗透一套对你有用的交易规则。

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125. The final phase in a bull move is an accelerated runaway near the top. In this phase, the market always makes you believe that you have underestimated the potential bull market. The temptation to continue pyramiding your position is strong as profits have now swelled to the point that you believe your account can stand any setback. It is imperative at this juncture to take profits on your pyramids and reduce the position back to base levels. The base position is then liquidated when it becomes apparent that the move has ended.

一个牛市Bull Market运动的最后阶段是一场接近顶部的加速赛跑。在这一阶段,市场总是让你相信你低估了潜在的牛市Bull Market。随着盈利膨胀到让你相信你的账户可以对付任何挫折,继续堆砌你的头寸(Position)金字塔的诱惑强大。在这关键的时候,要紧的是从你的金字塔上拿走你的盈利,把你的头寸(Position)减少到基本水平。随后,当这一运动变得显然结束了时,将这基本头寸(Position)也平仓。